SurelySo
ForecastDashboardAccuracyPricing
SurelySo

Weather forecasts that pay when they're wrong. Simple, transparent, guaranteed by SurelySo.

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© 2026 SurelySo. All forecasts are independently verified and auditable.
SurelySo
ForecastDashboardAccuracyPricing
Public transparency

Forecast accuracy

Every forecast is timestamped, locked before coverage, and resolved using official weather station data. Nothing is edited after the fact.

30-day accuracy

50%

2 correct · 2 incorrect

4 total forecasts

2 guarantees paid ($10)

90-day accuracy

50%

2 correct · 2 incorrect

4 total forecasts

2 guarantees paid ($10)

All-time accuracy

50%

2 correct · 2 incorrect

4 total forecasts

2 guarantees paid ($10)

Accuracy trend
50%

30 days

2 payouts

50%

90 days

2 payouts

Resolution integrity

  • Forecasts lock at 6 PM local time the day before coverage
  • Resolution uses NOAA official weather station observations
  • Threshold: ≥0.01 inches (0.25mm) measurable precipitation
  • All outcomes logged in the public ledger below

2 guarantees paid totaling $10 — all-time

Recent incorrect forecasts

San Francisco

Predicted NO RAIN at 85% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KSFO

$5 paid

San Francisco

Predicted NO RAIN at 87% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KSFO

$5 paid

Guarantees paid

San Francisco — 0.04 in rain recorded — forecast was NO RAIN
$5
Chicago — Unexpected afternoon storm — forecast was NO RAIN
$5
New York — Dry day — forecast was RAIN LIKELY
$5
Los Angeles — 0.02 in rain recorded — forecast was NO RAIN
$5

Public forecast ledger

San Francisco · Aug 14

NO RAIN · 92% confidence

Aug 13, 1:00 PM UTC

pending

Los Angeles · Aug 14

NO RAIN · 94% confidence

Aug 13, 1:00 PM UTC

pending

Chicago · Aug 14

NO RAIN · 86% confidence

Aug 13, 11:00 AM UTC

pending

New York · Aug 14

RAIN LIKELY · 78% confidence

Aug 13, 10:00 AM UTC

pending

San Francisco · Aug 13

NO RAIN · 88% confidence

Aug 12, 1:00 PM UTC

pending

San Francisco · Aug 12

NO RAIN · 85% confidence

Aug 11, 1:00 PM UTC

$5 paid

incorrect

San Francisco · Aug 11

NO RAIN · 91% confidence

Aug 10, 1:00 PM UTC

correct

San Francisco · Aug 10

NO RAIN · 89% confidence

Aug 9, 1:00 PM UTC

correct

San Francisco · Aug 4

NO RAIN · 87% confidence

Aug 3, 1:00 PM UTC

$5 paid

incorrect

Public forecast ledger

DateCityForecastConfidenceIssuedOutcomePaid
Aug 14San FranciscoNO RAIN92%Aug 13, 1:00 PM UTCpending—
Aug 14Los AngelesNO RAIN94%Aug 13, 1:00 PM UTCpending—
Aug 14ChicagoNO RAIN86%Aug 13, 11:00 AM UTCpending—
Aug 14New YorkRAIN LIKELY78%Aug 13, 10:00 AM UTCpending—
Aug 13San FranciscoNO RAIN88%Aug 12, 1:00 PM UTCpending—
Aug 12San FranciscoNO RAIN85%Aug 11, 1:00 PM UTCincorrect$5
Aug 11San FranciscoNO RAIN91%Aug 10, 1:00 PM UTCcorrect—
Aug 10San FranciscoNO RAIN89%Aug 9, 1:00 PM UTCcorrect—
Aug 4San FranciscoNO RAIN87%Aug 3, 1:00 PM UTCincorrect$5
SurelySo

Weather forecasts that pay when they're wrong. Simple, transparent, guaranteed by SurelySo.

Product

  • Forecast
  • Pricing
  • Accuracy

Company

  • About
  • Careers
  • Contact

Legal

  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Guarantee Policy
© 2026 SurelySo. All forecasts are independently verified and auditable.