Public transparency

Forecast accuracy

Every forecast is timestamped, locked before coverage, and resolved using official weather station data. Nothing is edited after the fact.

30-day accuracy

86%

100 correct · 16 incorrect

116 total forecasts

16 guarantees paid ($80)

90-day accuracy

83%

164 correct · 33 incorrect

197 total forecasts

33 guarantees paid ($165)

All-time accuracy

83%

164 correct · 33 incorrect

197 total forecasts

33 guarantees paid ($165)

Accuracy trend

86%

30 days

16 payouts

83%

90 days

33 payouts

Resolution integrity

Forecasts lock at 6 PM local time the day before coverage
Resolution uses NOAA official weather station observations
Threshold: ≥0.01 inches (0.25mm) measurable precipitation
All outcomes logged in the public ledger below

33 guarantees paid totaling $165 — all-time

Recent incorrect forecasts

Chicago

Predicted NO RAIN at 64% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KORD

$5 paid

New York

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 55% confidence

<0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

New York

Predicted NO RAIN at 86% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

Chicago

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 75% confidence

<0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KORD

$5 paid

New York

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 68% confidence

<0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

Chicago

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 65% confidence

<0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KORD

$5 paid

Chicago

Predicted NO RAIN at 63% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KORD

$5 paid

New York

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 65% confidence

<0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

Chicago

Predicted NO RAIN at 78% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KORD

$5 paid

Chicago

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 55% confidence

<0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KORD

$5 paid

Los Angeles

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 55% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KLAX

$5 paid

Los Angeles

Predicted NO RAIN at 64% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KLAX

$5 paid

Chicago

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 57% confidence

<0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KORD

$5 paid

New York

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 55% confidence

<0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

New York

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 55% confidence

<0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

San Francisco

Predicted NO RAIN at 80% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KSFO

$5 paid

New York

Predicted NO RAIN at 69% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

New York

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 55% confidence

<0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

Chicago

Predicted NO RAIN at 77% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KORD

$5 paid

New York

Predicted NO RAIN at 83% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

New York

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 64% confidence

<0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

New York

Predicted NO RAIN at 63% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

New York

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 58% confidence

<0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

New York

Predicted NO RAIN at 70% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

New York

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 62% confidence

<0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

New York

Predicted NO RAIN at 66% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

Chicago

Predicted NO RAIN at 63% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KORD

$5 paid

New York

Predicted NO RAIN at 87% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

New York

Predicted NO RAIN at 73% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KNYC

$5 paid

Chicago

Predicted RAIN LIKELY at 73% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KORD

$5 paid

San Francisco

Predicted NO RAIN at 94% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KSFO

$5 paid

San Francisco

Predicted NO RAIN at 85% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KSFO

$5 paid

San Francisco

Predicted NO RAIN at 87% confidence

≥0.01 in (0.25mm) precipitation at KSFO

$5 paid